Sunday, October 14, 2007

Armchair Campaign Advisor Challenge

Here's the approximate 3rd quarter cash-on-hand figures for Illinois 10th District Congressional campaigns according to Crains:

Jay Footlik: $400,000
Dan Seals: $500,000
Mark Kirk: $1,500,000

How would you advise each candidate to spend their money?


Anonymous said...

Seals is a waste. Fottlik is rising and should have the shot against your guy Kirk.

Halverson is going to suck DCCC south too.

joe mccarthy and the redscarecrows said...

Jay Footlik - He needs to raise his name ID in the district. I'd recommend direct mail to D's - he needs to convince primary voters that Dan Seals had his shot in the best conditions possible and failed. (Which is true)

Dan Seals - he needs to convince primary voters that he deserves another shot and that the new guy is just some carpetbagger who didn't even grow up in the district. (Which is true). I'd also recommend direct mail.

Neither of these guys is going to raise the money for a sustained TV buy leading up to the primary. I'd also like to see how much cash on hand is for the general. If it is more than 20 percent, they are going to have a rough go at it in early February.

Another important point is that one of them needs to "outleft" the other, but in order to do so, they are going to have to start beating each other senseless. The winner of the dem primary can't just run on the "we need to beat Kirk" mantra. You've got to stand for something - not "I'm not George Bush." It didn't work for Gore and it didn't work for Kerry (and it didn't work for Seals in 2006).

Anonymous said...

UM, I don't think I want or need to advise either of these campaigns on how to spend what they've raised. I just want to watch BOTH of them spend all that they have so that when 2/6/08 rolls around the winner needs to start all over again towards the general election. The nastiness directed at Jay Footlik by the official blogger for the 10th district, Ellen Beth Gill, might just HELP Jay rather than hurt him. Like her attacks on Congressman Kirk, she's so over the top, so bitter and so angry that one almost WANTS to go out and listen to Jay Footlik. As for Mr. Seals......I have yet to hear him talk about anything other than the issue of Iraq. He has never lived in our district, has not stated anything substantive on how he will address issues IN our district. He's a one issue guy. I hope they both spend, spend, spend. I want to see, hear and read their ideas to help address concerns and issues in this district. And let the rhetoric begin!

Team America said...

I agree Anon 10:20- as a Kirk supporter, I am fairly giddy with excitement at the idea of both Dem candidates spending every dime they have to pander to the liberal leftist base, when the winner will not only have to replenish those funds, but also circle back around to center to win this District.

That being said, Seals is an idiot for not doing the simple, cheap things to improve his campaign, like just moving into the darn district. He didn't cure this issue last time, and people question his commitment if he can't even be bothered to live in the same district he claims to want to represent. Even more so this time around after having had more than 2 years to do something about it.

As for Footlik, I don't know enough about him to really plan his strategy, but that's part of the problem--he needs to convince the Dem base that they should vote for him because Seals couldn't get the job done in a landslide national year for Dems. Most of all, he needs to spend his money to get known outside of the jewish community.

Anonymous said...

TA.....I agree with what you're saying about both campaigns. Each has under $500K.....Seals has a bit more than Footlik, but Seals COH is a bit lackluster, don't you agree? Footlik seems to be working the western part of the district hoping to gain some name recognition. Seals is stragely quiet. They're both going to have to spend those resources in the next few months and then start all over again. While the Kirk campaign is raising money daily,I do believe that they'll need to keep up this pace in each of the quarters ahead. The DCCC will jump in to rescue the winner of the Primary and then this will become a whole new "ballgame". What is so good to see is the commitment of district folks to keeping Mark Kirk in office. Those naysayers "over on the other side" can't refute what the FEC report clearly shows: People in this District respect Mark Kirk, want his kind of thoughtful leadership representing this district in DC and are showing it in the best possible way. Mark Kirk keeps his promises. He is a positive leader who has made good things happen in this district. Let those two guys battle right up to the February Primary spending time and money for a message that so far just hasn't seemed to resonate well with voters. I think this is going to be fun to watch, don't you?

Joe said...

Of course, Seals also does not live in the district. Yes, he used to live in the 10th, before the redistricting, but he will only be called a hypocrit if he accuses Footlik of being a foreigner.

Although he isn't raising much money yet, don't discount the impact that the Green Party candidate, Dave Kalbfleisch, could have on the race. He just put out a video that is kind of interesting:

The Green candidate for governor didn't spend that much in 2006, but he did much better than anyone expected. If Kalbfleisch manages to get some good press, who knows what might happen? Republican voters might respect his military service, and Democrats might appreciate his pledge to vote against funding the occupation of Iraq. And of course he stands to get support from all the people who hate both the major parties.

Team America said...

Anon 1:00- you're right about the DCCC parachuting in after the primary, of course--but, the good news is that the Kirk team is well aware of that and is pulling out all of the stops to be prepared. If Kirk has $2MM in the bank or more by the primary, DCCC knows they'll have to throw at least that plus another mil just to be competitive. And even though DCCC is way better off than the Republicans nowadays, that still isn't chump change. It'll be fun, that'll be sure...

Anonymous said...

TA, it's also important to note that the open seats in IL will also have to be funded by the DCCC in the 08 cycle. All of their largesse can't just be aimed at our district. I agree with you that the amazing Kirk fundraising team is well poised to keep this momentum going forward. Having over 1.5 million cash on hand right now, with more coming in each day, is a plus, for sure, since it shows the faith these contributors have in Congressman Mark Kirk. It speaks volumes and more. I was on the TeleTown Hall call last night. This new format is really a great way for our Congressman to interact with more constituents than he can in the old fashioned forum.